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Raees v/s Kaabil, who will reign supreme? Here's what the trade experts have to say!
A trend that has been common nowadays in Bollywood is CLASHES. 2016 saw iconic clashes like ADHM v/s Shivaay and Mohenjo Daro v/s Rustom. 2017 will see Shah Rukh Khan pitted against Hrithik Roshan as Raees and Kaabil will be releasing on the same day (25th January, 2017).
Shah Rukh Khan will be playing a bootlegger and has strayed away from his romantic Raj and Rahul roles. Raees went through a lot of delays and 25th January was finally finalised.
Hrithik Roshan plays a visually impaired man in Kaabil, hell-bent on revenge for the wrong done to him. While discussions took place for a clash to be avoided, neither party budged for their respective reasons. As the clash is very much on, we couldn't help but wonder how the box-office for both the movies would look like.
We had a word with some Trade Experts and asked them on what their predictions for both the movies would be and who would win the box-office battle:
Akshaye Rathi: "Both the films are looking very promising. Because one, of course, is Shah Rukh Khan in a mass avatar with great music. It has everything working for it. On the other hand, you have a very formidable team. It's a very Kaabil team out there. You've got a phenomenal actor, you've got all the style in the world courtesy, Sanjay Gupta, you've got all the substance and emotional graph in a film courtesy of Mr. Rakesh Roshan. It doesn't get better than that. If they blend and work well, I'm sure it will be a fantastic product.
Because of Shah Rukh Khan's stardom, maybe Raees would have an edge in the opening. From 27th onwards it will be a battle of content rather than star power. Whichever is the better film will take off. For example, Bajirao Mastani vs Dilwale; Dilwale took a much bigger start, eventually, the film that the audience took better to, that went ahead. So if Raees has better content that will go ahead and if Kaabil has better content that will go ahead. And if touchwood, both have great content then it will become a Lagaan and Gadar: Ek Prem Katha scenario. There is nothing better than that; where two great films release on the same day and do extremely well. 25th January is not a holiday and 26th is. So on 25th, Raees should do something in the range of INR 15 crore and Kaabil should do something in the range of INR 10-12 crore. From 26th though, both will go ballistic.
When you have a Taare Zameen Par and Welcome come, it's great. When a Lagaan and Gadar: Ek Prem Katha come together and they do well, it's great. You need that kind of scenarios. Because that's what trade needs right now. After Dangal, we need to sustain the momentum. Everyone's hopes are on these two films right now."
Amod Mehra: "The clash could have been avoided. Both the films are releasing on a Wednesday and it is not a normal Friday date so the morning shows maybe affected as it is a working day. However, as 26th January is a holiday, it should improve from the evening shows. 26th January will help a lot but 27th onwards, whichever is a better film will win. Ultimately the content will win. Opening wise, this is what trade is looking at - a very healthy number on 26th for both the films, with Raees having a little edge because Raees has got more single screen theatres and is more suited for single screen theatres than Kaabil is. Hence, it will have an upper edge. It's a mass oriented film. Gunda hai, toh theek hai. Anywhere in India or the world, a bootlegger is more popular than a blind man.
Nobody can say anything about the opening numbers as it is on a Wednesday. It will be very ordinary. It's not a Diwali or an Eid. There is no buzz for both the films in a big way. There is a buzz but limited buzz. There is no excitement to see either of the two films. What is missing is the excitement. Both are not catering to the youth. Who are the people who see the movies? They are between 14-15 to 34. Both the films don't cater to them. One genre is about a bootlegger, smuggler, gunda. How can a multiplex audience or the youth be interested in that? Then the heroine is a Pakistani who is not even good-looking. As far as Kaabil is concerned, both are blind. You have to go with your eyes open. You can't just blindly go, you have to go with your eyes open. So, I don't see any miracle on 25th. 26th, like I said will be very good but since Raees has got more theatres it will have an edge."
Atul Mohan: "On an average when a big film is being released, the maximum box-office which can be generated is INR 300 crores. If you look at the clash between Raees and Kaabil, we can say that the total box-office of both the films combined should be somewhere around INR 300-325 crore. It depends on how much, which movie makes.
A lot of battle is happening behind-the-screen to grab the maximum number of screens. So, it all depends on which movie gets the bigger number of screens. So obviously, that movie would have a better edge over the other. But at the same time, it also depends on whose content is much better. I think both should get more or less the same number of screens. More or less, the same opening for both the movies. The one with the better content; out of these two, the film which is Kaabil will make everybody Raees."
Bharati S Pradhan: "First and foremost, it's just very unfortunate. Raees was supposed to clash with Sultan. They decided not to and now they're clashing with Kaabil. It would be nice if it didn't clash with anybody, actually. Otherwise, they might as well have clashed with Sultan instead of waiting for so long.
Going by the trailers, I think they're both thrillers and they're both looking very good. Although they both are action thrillers, they both have a different appeal. There is a very distinct look about both of them. I think both will fare well. Only thing is, they'll eat into each other's collection in the beginning. But, I think they will both fare well because both seem to be tracking pretty well. We're going to have a 4-day opening weekend with the Republic Day. The interesting thing is that during Republic Day, you have a Jai Ho or an Airlift, something patriotic. Neither of them (Raees and Kaabil) is a patriotic film. One is about a criminal from Gujarat and another which is about a blind guy. Neither of them are related to patriotism, I find that interesting. Maybe, it will be nice for a change also.
In terms of numbers, I would think - they should both get atleast INR 30 crores for the opening weekend. 30 toh milna chahiye. Demonetisation got blown with Dangal. Generally, I just think people should avoid a clash because they just eat into each other's collection for no reason at all, for a while atleast untill it settles down."
The final verdict: Trade experts believe that SRK's star power will help Raees on 25th and 26th, January but from 27th January CONTENT will be KING!
Which movie are you more keen on watching? Let us know in the comments below.
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