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Why is China's population shrinking? Exploring reason as numbers could go down more than half
China, the most populous country globally, is facing a significant demographic challenge with its population on a trajectory towards a substantial decline.
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China's population faces an unprecedented decline indicating that numbers could more than halve
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Aging population strains dependency ratio, impacting healthcare and welfare systems
China, the world's most populous country, is experiencing a huge demographic crisis, with its population on the decline. Recent data and forecasts indicate that if present trends continue, China's population might be more than halved by the end of the century. Several causes contribute to this historic population transition, generating worries about its economic, social, and global consequences as per NDTV.
Declining birth rates and policy impact
The primary cause of China's shrinking population is falling birth rates. Despite the elimination of the infamous one-child policy in 2016 and the following implementation of a three-child policy in 2021, birth rates continue to fall. The total fertility rate, or average number of births per woman, has plummeted from 1.66 in the early 2000s to an unexpected low of about 1.0, significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1. The one-child policy, while relaxed, has left an indelible mark on societal norms, with economic pressures further discouraging parenthood.
Economic issues have an important influence on decreasing births in China. Employees work long hours, averaging 49 hours a week, leaving little time for their families. Gender inequities in the workforce, where women earn less than men and struggle to balance work and family life, lead to childbearing delays. Economic uncertainty and the high cost of living discourage couples from extending their families, aggravating the population decline. 
Aging population and dependency ratio
China's demographic landscape is rapidly aging, with far-reaching consequences for its societal structure and economy. As birth rates decline and life expectancy rises, the number of old people grows. By 2100, China's working-age population is expected to fall to one-fifth of its 2014 peak, while the senior population grows. This demographic transition causes an imbalance in the dependence ratio, with fewer working-age people supporting a larger cohort of retirees, causing issues for pension systems and healthcare facilities.
China's declining population presents multiple issues that echo across the world. Economically, a shrinking labor force reduces productivity and consumer spending, while rising healthcare and welfare expenditures drain government resources. Furthermore, when China's economy suffers, it puts downward pressure on the global economy, given its position as the world's second-largest economy. The ramifications go beyond economics to include unity in society, cultural dynamics, and geopolitical impact.
China's declining population is a complicated and urgent subject with far-reaching effects. Addressing this demographic problem demands comprehensive policies that include social, economic, and policy components. Efforts to promote family-friendly legislation, assist working parents, and reduce economic stresses on young families are critical to reverse the decline in birth rates. Furthermore, investments in healthcare, eldercare, and social safety nets are critical for mitigating the effects of an aging population. As China navigates its demographic shift, proactive measures are critical to ensuring its societal vitality and global prominence in the next decades.
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