Box Office: Lilo and Stitch, Mission Impossible 8 eye USD 600M combined global debut this weekend

Memorial Day weekend may be an exclusive American holiday frame, but its impact on the global box office has become undeniable. This year, two major blockbusters — Disney’s Lilo & Stitch and Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning — are poised to engage in a massive showdown, eyeing a combined worldwide debut of approximately USD 600 million. With both films targeting distinct audiences yet releasing simultaneously, this weekend is shaping up to be a historic one at cinemas globally.

Exhibitors Anticipating an Unparalleled Memorial Day Weekend Business

After a somewhat disappointing Memorial Day weekend last year, when Furiosa struggled to make a significant impact, nearly being overshadowed by Sony’s Garfield, Hollywood appears to have recalibrated its strategy. Memorial Day weekend is once again a battleground for massive tentpoles, and this time, the studios have smartly positioned two big films that cater to different demographics. On one hand, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch appeals broadly to families and younger viewers, especially women aged 18 to 34. On the other hand, Tom Cruise’s action-espionage title Mission: Impossible 8 targets the older male demographic.

This dynamic is reminiscent of other box office phenomena like Barbenheimer — the unexpected dual blockbuster triumph of Barbie and Oppenheimer — and Glicked, when Wicked and Gladiator II dominated the pre-Thanksgiving 2024 frame. It's a perfect balance of diverse entertainment hitting theaters at once.

Box Office Projections: Breaking Down the Numbers

Starting Friday, May 23, the four-day Memorial Day weekend box office in the US alone is on track to rival the impressive USD 314 million minted during the record-setting 2013 weekend, headlined by Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III.

Globally, industry insiders forecast a USD 600 million combined debut for the two films. Disney’s Lilo & Stitch leads the charge with a projected USD 400 million worldwide debut, while Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is expected to open around USD 200 million.

Strong Buzz Fuels Lilo & Stitch’s Debut Hopes

Lilo & Stitch has generated strong buzz ahead of its release. Domestic presales have already crossed USD 20 million, a solid figure, though roughly half the presale marks set by recent Disney successes like Moana 2 and the 2019 live-action The Lion King. They each boasted around USD 40 million before their respective opening weekends. Interestingly, Lilo & Stitch is outpacing presales of such hits as The Super Mario Bros. Movie, The Little Mermaid, and Minecraft, indicating robust interest.

Disney is particularly encouraged by the film’s appeal to women in the aforementioned age range, but the male 18–34 demographic is showing similarly strong enthusiasm. The film will preview Thursday afternoon in about 4,300 theaters across the US and Canada, available in all premium formats except IMAX — a format reserved for Mission: Impossible.

Internationally, Lilo & Stitch began its rollout on Wednesday in key markets like France, Italy, Korea, and the UK, with Australia, Brazil, and Mexico to follow. China, India, and Spain will have to wait until Friday to catch Lilo & Stitch in theaters. In total, about 50 major markets will release the film during this window, with Japan and Hong Kong scheduled for later dates.

Merchandising tied to the Lilo & Stitch franchise remains a strong global revenue driver, and while the opening is expected to skew slightly more domestic, the overseas launch is forecast to bring in upwards of USD 125 million.

Looking at Disney’s recent live-action remakes for context, The Little Mermaid opened to about USD 65 million, Cinderella pulled in USD 71 million, and Mufasa: The Lion King started with USD 92 million during a more extended holiday window. Aladdin (2019), also a May release, debuted with USD 180 million and demonstrated strong legs afterward, a hopeful sign for Lilo & Stitch.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’s Prospects

After a global promotional tour across London, Cannes, Seoul, Tokyo, Mexico City, and New York City, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is poised for a strong domestic debut between USD 75 million and USD 85 million at roughly 3,846 locations. The film has a significant number of premium large format (PLF) screens, approximately 900, that will help drive higher ticket prices.

The film’s awareness and interest metrics are higher than those for 2023’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, which earned USD 54 million over three days and USD 78.4 million over five days domestically. Final Reckoning boasts a much larger production budget, estimated between USD 300 and USD 400 million, reflecting the ambitious, death-defying action sequences that were filmed under challenging pandemic and strike conditions.

The international rollout officially kicked off on Wednesday, with paid previews already underway in select markets. By Friday, the film will have launched in 64 territories worldwide. The overseas debut is expected to surpass USD 125 million, potentially the highest overseas opening in the franchise’s history when adjusted for inflation. Major markets like France, Germany, Korea, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, the UK, Spain, and Taiwan will support this robust international presence.

About the Films:

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is directed by Christopher McQuarrie and is the final installment of the nearly three-decades-spanning Mission: Impossible saga. Ving Rhames, Hayley Atwell, Angela Bassett, and more join Cruise in his last mission as IMF agent Ethan Hunt.

Lilo & Stitch, directed by Dean Fleischer Camp and written by Chris Kekaniokalani Bright and Mike Van Waes, is a live-action and CGI hybrid remake of Disney’s beloved 2002 animated classic. Maia Kealoha stars as Lilo, with Chris Sanders returning to voice Stitch.

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