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EXCLUSIVE: Jawan to open bigger than Pathaan: Trade experts elated by Shah Rukh Khan film’s advance booking
Trade experts Taran Adarsh, Girish Johar, Ramesh Bala, and Raj Bansal talk about the potential box office performance of Shah Rukh Khan’s Jawan, set to release in cinemas this Thursday.
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Trade experts are elated by the overwhelming response to Jawan & are anticipating 60-65 cr on Day 1
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After Gadar 2, Jawan is going to revive the business across India, says Taran Adarsh
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Bollywood should release their big scale action movies in dubbed versions in South: Ramesh Bala
After achieving tremendous success with the biggest-ever Hindi blockbuster Pathaan earlier this year, Shah Rukh Khan is once again gracing the silver screen with Jawan this week. The Atlee-directed mass action entertainer has generated an unparalleled buzz among audiences and is poised to dominate the box office. The advance booking, which commenced last Friday, has created a frenzy, with a staggering 240,000 tickets sold for the opening day alone across the three major national chains: PVR, Inox, and Cinepolis, up until Sunday. Trade experts are elated by the overwhelming response to Jawan and are anticipating it to surpass the opening collections of Pathaan, with a projected range of 60–65 crores on September 7.
"Jawan is going to take a fantabulous start at the box office. There’s no denying that," says veteran trade analyst Taran Adarsh, adding, "Shah Rukh Khan, of course, is a major force after Pathaan, and the humongous success of Pathaan has only increased the hype of Jawan by 100 times. And that’s the reason why you see Jawan’s tickets being sold like hotcakes. It’s releasing on Thursday and will have a four-day weekend, so expect a huge number. I am expecting anywhere between 55 and 60 crore in the Hindi version at least, and combined with the Tamil and Telugu versions, it can touch 65 to 70 crore on the first day." 
Film distributor and exhibitor Raj Bansal echoes Adarsh's sentiment and adds, "The opening of Jawan will be earth-shattering. After the success of SRK's last film, Pathaan, his latest release is bound to create new records. It’s an out-and-out action drama that will attract the masses as well as the classes. The lifetime business depends on the content, but I am expecting opening day to close at 65 crore plus. The first weekend might close at 240 or 250 crore". While the Indian box office is sure to surpass every record, the film is expected to perform extraordinarily well overseas as well, thanks to SRK's massive fan following abroad. Producer and film business expert Girish Johar predicts, "Globally, the advances in the US and other parts of the world were opened quite early, and they are also quite strong. I think it’s a sureshot big bonanza out there at the box office this coming weekend. I am very pleasantly happy to say that the global box office should be anywhere around 300 crore plus GBOC over the extended weekend. Jawan is literally on fire and has set the ball rolling for a humongous extended weekend."
The last month was possibly the biggest ever for the Hindi film business, with Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahani, Gadar 2, OMG 2, and Dream Girl 2 collectively amassing over 700 crore at the domestic box office in one month alone. Sunny Deol's Gadar sequel shattered every box office record, revitalizing single-screen circuits and bringing audiences back to pre-pandemic levels. SRK's Jawan is expected to sustain this momentum, offering a further boost to mass circuits. "Gadar 2 has revived single screens and mass pockets. Usse pehle (Before that) Pathaan also did that, but there was a gap in between. Now, immediately after Gadar 2, Jawan is going to revive the business across India. And I think that is going to be a huge boost for the business of single screens and mass pockets, which were reeling under losses and were looking for good content to survive in the lockdown," adds Taran Adarsh.
When asked about the potential lifetime business of Jawan, Adarsh remarks, "The lifetime is very difficult to predict at the moment because no one has watched the film, so you can’t really draw a parallel. But yes, Shah Rukh is going to compete with himself. It will be SRK vs. SRK, Jawan vs. Pathaan." Girish Johar added, "The box office is very dynamic these days. We all understand that the film starts at a particular level, and if it’s accepted by the public, it can go anywhere. And if it is not accepted by the public, it can come crashing down after a couple of days of hysteria. But I do really wish it could be another 500 crore grosser in the Indian market. That would be fantastic and will be a much-needed push for our fraternity".
Jawan is the first true-blue pan-Indian offering from the Hindi film industry, and while Hindi-speaking audiences are already buzzing with excitement for the film, what's the situation in South India, where the movie is releasing in dubbed Tamil and Telugu versions? "It’s doing extremely well in South India as well. It has a south flavor with lots of technicians and actors from here. Wherever the advances have opened, it’s going great," says South Indian trade analyst Ramesh Bala, adding that Jawan is eyeing 15-20 crore on the first day in South circuits alone. "The lifetime depends on word of mouth and how good the movie is, which is a little difficult to predict unless you’ve seen the movie. The buzz is good, so the opening should be good too. Unlike Pathaan, this is also a Tamil and Telugu movie, which should add good numbers over the weekend."
SRK attempts to conquer South Indian market with Jawan's dubbed versions
What sets Jawan apart from Shah Rukh Khan's other films is its resemblance to the “mass masala” genre that has lately been a favorite among Hindi audiences. The casting of Nayanthara, Vijay Sethupathi, and Priyamani further adds to its South Indian flavor. When asked about SRK's intentions with this cross-cultural project, Girish Johar explains, "If you see, with Pathaan, he catered to the urban, the mass audiences in the tier 1 metro cities with stylish action. With Jawan, he is trying to go into the interiors down south because he knows he has already conquered the Hindi belt market and the overseas belt market."
The Hindi film industry has largely overlooked the South Indian market, and the success of Jawan there is expected to embolden them to expand their Hindi releases in the South. Ramesh Bala believes Hindi films are not exploited in the South except for the Hindi version. "Hindi versions do limitedly well in cities like Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Kochi, but in the interiors of the South, Hindi movies don’t do well unless they're dubbed in Tamil or Telugu. Surely, if big Bollywood movies like Tiger 3 and other action-packed films or franchises are dubbed in Southern languages, they have the potential to do well, like how Hollywood movies are doing here. So we should consider making Bollywood action movies as pan-India releases with dubbed versions and promotions in the South, and it certainly would add additional box office revenue from here".
Jawan releases in theatres on September 7.
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